Printed On 6 Sep 2025
President Donald Trump stated US staff are already benefitting from his financial insurance policies.
“The common American employee has already seen a $500 wage improve this 12 months,” Trump stated throughout an August 26 Cupboard assembly.
Trump’s White Home cherry-picked information that favours the next earnings acquire. Specialists desire a distinct measure, primarily based on a bigger pattern measurement, that reveals a smaller improve.
How the White Home calculated a $500 pay bump
Once we requested the White Home press workplace for Trump’s information supply, a spokesperson pointed us to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for median traditional weekly earnings of full-time wage and wage staff, seasonally adjusted.
This information reveals that median weekly earnings rose from $1,185 within the fourth quarter of 2024 to $1,206 within the second quarter of 2025, which carefully aligns with Trump’s second time period in workplace.
As a result of these figures signify weekly earnings, we multiplied them by 26 to see how a lot a typical employee gained throughout the half-year interval. Multiplying by 26 weeks produces a cumulative $546 rise in wages. This measure doesn’t embrace part-time staff, who account for a few quarter of the workforce, or account for inflation.
Specialists contemplate different measures extra dependable
Economists stated the White Home’s chosen dataset isn’t as dependable as a distinct set – and the extra dependable examine reveals a smaller wage improve.
The opposite dataset – common weekly earnings of all private-sector workers – is produced month-to-month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Over the primary six months of 2025, this statistic discovered a cumulative pay improve of about $121. That’s about one-quarter of what Trump stated.
A number of economists instructed us that is the popular statistic for measuring wages, as a result of it’s primarily based on the Present Employment Statistics programme, which surveys 121,000 companies and authorities businesses, collectively representing roughly 631,000 worksites. By comparability, the Present Inhabitants Survey, from which the White Home’s information is drawn, samples 60,000 eligible households.
“I all the time belief the payroll sequence extra,” stated Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the centre-right American Motion Discussion board.
Dean Baker, cofounder of the liberal Heart for Financial and Coverage Analysis, agrees, saying the info within the smaller family survey “is very erratic”.
As well as, in response to this dataset, the wage rise throughout President Joe Biden’s final two quarters was $884. This undercuts the notion that Trump’s good points have been unusually excessive.
Factoring in inflation
As a result of each of those measures fail to consider inflation, they overestimate staff’ good points.
One other statistic, median traditional weekly inflation-adjusted earnings for full-time wage and wage staff, 16 years and over, additionally from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is produced quarterly utilizing the smaller sample-size family survey and takes inflation under consideration.
By this metric, staff’ pay elevated by $1 per week between the ultimate quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025.
Multiplied by 26 weeks, this provides as much as a $26 pay rise after inflation.
Our ruling
Trump stated: “The common American employee has already seen a $500 wage improve this 12 months.”
The White Home cited wage statistics that present median wages for full-time staff rose by a cumulative $546 throughout the first two quarters of 2025.
A special set of statistics – one which economists contemplate extra correct as a result of it’s drawn from a a lot bigger pattern that features full- and part-time staff, and with much less volatility – reveals a a lot smaller rise within the common US employee’s pay over that interval, about $121 over six months.
When inflation is factored in, full-time staff’ take-home pay rose by even much less – by about $26 throughout the first six months of 2025.
The assertion is partially correct however leaves out vital particulars. We price it Half True.