Bangkok, Thailand – A short textual content message knowledgeable Chonlada Siangkong that she had misplaced her job at a photo voltaic cell manufacturing unit in Rayong, jap Thailand.
The manufacturing unit operated by Commonplace Vitality Co, a subsidiary of Singaporean photo voltaic cell big GSTAR, shut its doorways final month in anticipation of United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs on photo voltaic panel exports from Southeast Asia.
From Monday, US Customs and Border Safety will start imposing tariffs starting from 375 % to greater than 3,500 % on imports from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.
The punishing duties, launched in response to alleged unfair commerce practices by Chinese language-owned factories within the area, have raised questions concerning the persevering with viability of Southeast Asia’s photo voltaic export commerce, the supply of about 80 % of photo voltaic merchandise bought within the US.
Like 1000’s of different staff in Thailand and throughout the area, Chonlada, a 33-year-old mom of 1, is out of the blue going through a extra precarious future amid the commerce crackdown.
“We have been all shocked. The subsequent day, they advised us to not come to work and wouldn’t pay for compensation,” Chonlada advised Al Jazeera.
US officers say Chinese language producers have used Southeast Asian nations to skirt tariffs on China and “dump” low-cost photo voltaic panels within the US market, harming their companies.
US commerce officers have named Jinko Photo voltaic, Trina Photo voltaic, Taihua New Vitality Hounen, Sunshine Electrical Vitality, Runergy and Boviet – all of which have main operations in Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia or Vietnam – because the worst offenders.
Thai photo voltaic exports to the US have been price greater than $3.7bn in 2023, simply behind Vietnam at $3.9bn, in response to the most recent US commerce information.
Commonplace Vitality Co’s $300m facility in Rayong had been in operation for lower than a 12 months, producing its first photo voltaic cell to nice fanfare in August.
“I’m baffled by what’s simply occurred,” Kanyawee, a manufacturing line supervisor at Commonplace Vitality who requested to be referred to by his first identify solely, advised Al Jazeera.
“New machines have simply landed and we barely used them, they’re very pricey too – just a few million baht for every machine. They’ve additionally ordered tonnes of uncooked supplies ready to be produced.”
Ben McCarron, managing director of the danger consultancy Asia Analysis & Engagement, mentioned Southeast Asian producers are going through a critical hit from the US flip in the direction of protectionism.
“There are recommendations that manufacturing may exit Southeast Asia completely if tariffs are launched both in a blanket manner, or that particularly deal with Chinese language-owned manufacturing capability within the area,” McCarron advised Al Jazeera.
“The implications are important for these nations; Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia accounted for about 80 % of the US’s photo voltaic imports in 2024,” McCarron mentioned, including that “some producers have already begun shutting down and transferring out of the area”.
Unfair benefit
US officers and companies have accused China of giving its photo voltaic corporations an unfair market benefit with subsidies.
China was the most important funder of unpolluted vitality in Southeast Asia between 2013 and 2023, pouring $2.7bn into initiatives in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, in response to Zero Carbon Analytics.
The American Alliance for Photo voltaic Manufacturing Commerce Committee, a coalition of seven trade gamers, was among the many loudest voices to foyer for a pointy rise in levies on Chinese language imports.
And not using a reprieve from the notoriously unpredictable Trump, corporations affected by the tariffs have little recourse other than the flexibility to file an enchantment annually, or after 5 years, as soon as a “sundown assessment” clause takes impact.
Some observers imagine the sector could by no means get better.
“It’s not simply the low-skilled labour that was affected by the commerce warfare; many staff within the photo voltaic cell provide chain are technicians, expert labourers,” Tara Buakamsri, an adviser to environmental organisation Greenpeace, advised Al Jazeera.
“Even when you make a whole lot of financial savings, photo voltaic cell exporters would nonetheless want to chop down on these expert staff.”
Others take a extra bullish view, arguing that, as soon as the mud has settled, Chinese language photo voltaic corporations will drive the provision of merchandise wanted to fulfill regional emissions targets.
Whereas Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam welcomed Chinese language photo voltaic corporations partly as a result of massive sums of up-front funding on supply, they’re all additionally searching for to fulfill extra of their vitality wants with cleaner sources.
Earlier than Trump entered workplace together with his tariff agenda, Thailand had introduced plans to develop into carbon impartial by 2050 and produce net-zero greenhouse fuel emissions by 2065.
“A slowdown [or halt] in photo voltaic exports on account of US tariffs could supercharge efforts in Southeast Asian markets by Chinese language photo voltaic corporations, which see the area as a crucial and well-aligned vacation spot for inexperienced applied sciences,” McCarron mentioned.
“Leftover provide from slowing exports might be absorbed by home markets in Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, notably if governments use the scenario as an economical alternative to quickly speed up coverage initiatives that stimulate home photo voltaic.”
For Southeast Asia’s photo voltaic corporations, survival can be more likely to rely upon governments reducing pink tape and loosening the management of oil and fuel monopolies over the vitality combine.
On the similar time, the US’s exclusion of Southeast Asian photo voltaic imports may hamper the shift in the direction of greener vitality on the planet’s high economic system.
“Thailand’s photo voltaic cell manufacturing is closely export-driven and the US has traditionally been a significant export vacation spot,” Pavida Pananond, a professor of worldwide enterprise at Thammasat Enterprise College in Bangkok, advised Al Jazeera.
However photo voltaic tariffs will “additionally harm American shoppers and the inexperienced transition within the US as costs develop into increased”.