Taiepi, Taiwan – On a vivid morning final month, three sea drones skimmed throughout Su’ao Bay, off of Taiwan’s rugged northeast coast.
The tiny “stealth” Carbon Voyager 1, fast-moving Black Tide I, and explosives-carrying Sea Shark 800 have been the spotlight of an expo for corporations vying to assist Taiwan construct up a maritime drone pressure.
Taipei believes drones could possibly be pivotal in repelling China within the occasion its forces try and invade the self-ruled island, which Beijing has threatened to annex by pressure if mandatory.
Su’ao is simply 60km (37 miles) from Fulong, one of many so-called “crimson seashores” recognized by defence consultants as potential touchdown websites for the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) because of their distinctive topography.
Whereas Russia despatched tanks throughout land borders to launch its warfare on Ukraine in 2022, a Chinese language invasion of Taiwan would contain Beijing sending vessels throughout the 180-km- (112-mile-)huge Taiwan Strait.
Whereas the Taiwan Strait’s uneven waters and Taiwan’s mountainous geography and shallow seashores pose formidable challenges to an amphibious invasion, technological advances and a decades-long modernisation marketing campaign by the PLA have steadily chipped away on the island’s pure defences.
Confronted with a drastically bigger and extra highly effective opponent, Taiwan’s defence technique has steadily shifted in direction of honing the power to wage uneven warfare in order that an invasion is just too pricey for Beijing to think about.
Drones, from sea craft to single-use suicide weapons and high-altitude intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) autos, are a key aspect of Taipei’s so-called “porcupine technique”.
“It doesn’t imply that we have to construct one drone for his or her one drone,” Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Occasion who sits on the legislature’s overseas affairs and defence committee, instructed Al Jazeera.
As a substitute, Chen mentioned, Taiwan can preserve its edge by “disruptive improvements”.
“We have now to encourage startups to search out one thing cheaper and one thing that may match the terrain of Taiwan. That is our benefit,” he mentioned.
Taiwan is not any stranger to high-tech manufacturing.
The East Asian democracy is the world’s prime chipmaker, because of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm (TSMC), which produces about 90 p.c of probably the most superior semiconductors, however it additionally excels at making every part from wind generators to screws and fasteners for the aerospace trade.
In 2022, Taiwan’s authorities launched the “Drone Nationwide Crew” initiative in a bid to develop a homegrown drone trade able to repelling a Chinese language invasion and maintaining manufacturing underneath wartime situations.
Whereas Taiwan’s defence sector has been growing drones for the reason that Nineteen Nineties, Taiwanese producers have lengthy struggled to compete with the low costs supplied by Chinese language producers, significantly Shenzhen-based DJI, which holds a greater than 70 p.c share of the worldwide market.
The warfare in Ukraine, which has seen Kyiv make in depth use of drone warfare to carry its personal towards Moscow, has solely bolstered the idea in Taipei that unmanned autos could possibly be decisive in heading off its a lot larger army foe.
Below Taipei’s drone technique, the Ministry of Nationwide Defence and state-owned Nationwide Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Know-how, which organised June’s drone expo, are tasked with partnering with contractors to provide military-grade drones.
Below a parallel initiative, the Ministry of Financial Affairs is coordinating a program to assist the personal sector construct and promote “dual-use” drones, which serve business in addition to army functions, for each the native and abroad markets.
Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has expressed his want for Taiwan to change into an “Asian hub” for drone know-how and manufacturing.
For Taiwan, the bid to change into a drone powerhouse is a race againstt time.
United States Admiral Philip Davidson, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, has estimated that the PLA might be able to invading Taiwan by 2027.
Regardless of the urgent want for a formidable drone pressure, Taiwan’s progress at increase its home trade has been uneven at finest, consultants say, with the issues starting with overly modest targets that don’t match the size of the menace.
Taiwan has set a goal for native trade to provide 15,000 dual-use drones a month by 2028, whereas the Defence Ministry has ordered 700 military-grade unmanned aerial autos (UAVs) and three,422 dual-use drones from native producers, based on figures from the government-backed Analysis Institute for Democracy, Society, and Rising Know-how (DSET).
Taiwan additionally ordered roughly 1,000 UAVs from the US in 2024 and set a brand new goal in Might to obtain one other 47,000 drones over the subsequent 4 years.
The newer procurement figures have but to be accounted for within the nationwide price range, which implies they’re topic to doable change.
Regardless of the expanded targets, the figures – significantly of military-grade UAVs – are small by the requirements of recent warfare, based on defence consultants.
Throughout the opening volleys of a battle with China, Taipei and Beijing could be anticipated to “churn by hundreds of UAVs on a every day, if not hourly, foundation”, based on an April report by the US Naval Institute.
The report estimated that Taiwan’s current buy of 291 Altius-600M UAVs, 685 Switchblade loitering munitions, and 4 MQ-9B drones – a part of a $21bn backlog in army orders with the US authorities – would maintain simply 4 to 5 volleys towards the PLA.
Talking at a DSET summit on provide chain resilience in Taipei final month, Peter Mattis, president of the US-based Jamestown Basis, mentioned Taiwan wanted to assume on a a lot larger scale to satisfy its coaching and stockpile wants.
“Possibly it’s applicable to be fascinated with tons of [of drones] whilst you’re making an attempt to check issues out, however we must be burning by these, operating them by their paces, in order that we all know after we do scale … we’re really getting one thing that may stand the check,” Mattis mentioned.
Yurii Poita, head of the Asia Pacific part on the Kyiv-based Middle for Military, Conversion and Disarmament Research, famous that Ukraine plans to fabricate 200,000 a month in 2025, which is about “the identical quantity as Taiwan needs to [produce] over one yr”.
Ukrainian brigades burn by 50 to 100 first-person view drones (FPV) – which give the pilot a real-time view of the battlefield – every day, Poita instructed Al Jazeera.
Taiwan must be ready to pivot and adapt because it builds its arsenal, together with by taking note of developments in Russia and Ukraine, mentioned Misha Lu, a drone knowledgeable on the Taiwanese startup Tron Future.
“In Ukraine and Russia, drones have already developed past the mere goal of reconnaissance and strikes,” Lu instructed Al Jazeera.
“In Taiwan’s case, army drone functions haven’t been so numerous but.
“Merely put, the Taiwanese army wants to hurry up the method of determining the function of anti-drone tech in its defence planning and coaching,” Lu mentioned.
Nonetheless, consultants disagree about the place precisely Taiwan needs to be inserting its focus, given the wide range of drone varieties and its restricted sources.
Whereas a number of consideration has been paid to stopping PLA from touchdown on Taiwan, there has not been sufficient dialogue of what would occur subsequent, mentioned Lorenz Meier, the founder and CEO of the drone software program firm Auterion, who argues that Taipei’s drone technique ought to benefit from Taiwan’s distinctive geography.
Taiwan is break up down its size by the Central Mountain Vary, with most of its cities and cities – lots of which largely encompass low-rise concrete buildings designed to face up to earthquakes – positioned on the west coast.
About 60 p.c of the island is roofed in dense evergreen subtropical forest.
“I’m in full favour of pushing USV proper now; it additionally sends a message to China. That is essential,” Meier instructed Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the Su’ao Bay drone expo, the place Auterion signed a partnership with the NCSIST.
“However on the similar time, there must be, finally, dialog across the defence technique, and the truth that we’re not speaking a couple of life like city fight state of affairs exhibits that there’s work to be completed.
“I’ve by no means seen the federal government speak extensively about utilizing the hills,” Meier added.
“If you happen to retreat a pressure into the jungle, and for those who launch drones out of the hills, that’s going to be hell to take a seat on the seaside.”
Alexander Huang, the chairman of Taiwan’s Council on Strategic and Wargaming Research and a member of the opposition Kuomintang, mentioned Taipei’s technique has targeted on constructing an arsenal to the detriment of contemplating the right way to deploy it in a battle.
“A wise approach is for Taiwan to go is to assessment the specifics of the Taiwan contingency and Taiwan theatre and determine the operational tempo of the Folks’s Liberation Military and provide you with a sort of drone improvement technique with Taiwanese traits, somewhat than simply copying the Ukraine mannequin or following the recommendation of the Pentagon,” Huang instructed Al Jazeera.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry didn’t reply to Al Jazeera’s requests for remark.
A few of Taipei’s shortsightedness comes from an absence of current fight expertise, based on Jason Wang, the COO of ingeniSPACE, a geospatial intelligence firm with workplaces in Taiwan.
“Taiwan can produce any {hardware} that you possibly can probably think about and do it cheaply. Trendy warfare isn’t in regards to the {hardware}. It’s about placing the brains within the drones to offer the warfighter choices on the battlefield,” Wang instructed Al Jazeera.
“Understanding the function that completely different drones play on the battlefield, the logistics essential to get them there, and the pace of violence essential to cease your adversary is what Taiwanese producers have a tough time mastering,” Wang added.
“For Taiwan, mastery of the battlefield is a perform of political will, not functionality.”
Taiwan has for many years handled Chinese language aggression within the type of “grey-zone” ways – low-grade exercise occupying the area between peace and battle – however has not fought a army battle with Beijing for the reason that 1958 Taiwan Strait disaster.
Taipei and Beijing have been at odds for the reason that Forties, when the Republic of China (ROC) authorities misplaced the Chinese language Civil Struggle to communist forces.
In 1949, ROC chief Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan, an erstwhile Japanese colony, pledging to someday return to the mainland.
After shedding dozens of allies in the course of the Chilly Struggle, together with the US in 1979, Taiwan is at this time recognised by simply 11 nations and the Holy See.
Its diplomatic isolation means it can not formally have interaction with neighbouring militaries or UN peacekeeping missions.
Joint army workout routines with the US, Taiwan’s major safety guarantor, have been held on an unofficial foundation with none announcement, to keep away from angering China.
For a similar motive, whereas the US has pledged to offer Taiwan with the means to defend itself, successive governments in Washington have stopped wanting saying whether or not it will straight intervene in a battle.
Taiwan’s army, a logo of state repression throughout 4 a long time of martial regulation that lasted till 1987, has undergone important funding and modernisation in recent times.
After Taiwan transitioned to democracy within the early Nineteen Nineties, the army underwent a interval of neglect till the election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progress Occasion in 2016, based on Michael Hunzeker, an affiliate professor at George Mason College’s Schar Faculty of Coverage and Authorities.
The DPP noticed the army largely as a “software of authoritarian oppression”, Hunzeker instructed Al Jazeera, whereas the opposition KMT didn’t wish to construct up army energy as a result of it was looking for rapprochement with Beijing.
Below Tsai and her successor, Lai, Taiwan started to dramatically scale up army spending.
In 2025, Taiwan’s cupboard allotted defence spending equal to 2.45 p.c of gross home product (GDP) – up from spending equal to 1.82 p.c of GDP in 2016 – a price range that was later scaled down by the opposition-controlled legislature.
Lai has mentioned he in the end needs to boost spending this yr to three p.c of GDP, although his plans face opposition from the KMT.
Nonetheless, China’s army, the world’s largest by way of personnel, nonetheless dwarves Taiwan’s forces.
China’s army ranked third within the 2025 World Firepower Index, which measures the defence capabilities of worldwide militaries, far forward of Taiwan’s army at twenty second.
Since 2022, the PLA has performed common large-scale army workout routines within the Taiwan Strait, together with drills with drones.
China doesn’t have an embassy in Taipei, however its embassies in Washington, DC and Tokyo didn’t reply to requests for remark.
Taiwanese drone makers say that entry to real-world and well timed battlefield intelligence might be important to designing the most effective drones for Taiwan and potential purchasers abroad.
“Our weak factors are that we have to adapt to the situations on the battlefield that change every day. We have to know the situations to adapt software program,” Gene Su, common supervisor of Taiwanese toymaker-turned-drone producer Thunder Tiger, instructed Al Jazeera.
“We have to work with individuals within the US, and the entrance line in Europe to verify we perceive their wants, after which they adapt the software program.”
Taiwanese producers are additionally conscious of the problem they face from their business rivals.
China is expert at each making drones and conducting “digital warfare” able to jamming enemy drones and deceptive anti-drone techniques, mentioned Sunny Cheung, a Washington-based DSET fellow and analyst on the Jamestown Basis.
“All [drone makers] share the identical issues that the Chinese language anti-drone and digital warfare functionality are excellent, so they don’t seem to be positive in a real-time fight state of affairs whether or not Taiwanese drones can infiltrate … and conduct army operations,” Cheung instructed Al Jazeera, outlining the outcomes of a casual survey of CEOs at Taiwan’s largest business and army producers.
Taipei has been shifting to handle a few of these potential vulnerabilities.
Taiwanese Minister of Nationwide Defence Wellington Koo – the primary civilian to carry the function in a decade – not too long ago introduced that the army would fee its first-ever military drone unit, whereas UAVs and USVs would even be added to the navy.
Observers such because the DSET say establishing a UAV/USV process pressure this yr to “facilitate a extra coordinated strategy” to procurement, subsidies, budgeting, and analysis and improvement is one other step in the fitting course, however different logistical and financial challenges stay.
A lot of Taiwan’s drone technique depends upon its corporations discovering abroad companions to assist drive demand for drones and construct up the provision chain.
The Ministry of Financial Affairs not too long ago launched an initiative to attach Taiwanese corporations with clients in Japan, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and elsewhere who want to minimize China out of their provide chains.
For now, export figures stay low, though the trade is gaining momentum.
From exporting simply 290 drones in 2023, Taiwan exported 3,473 drones in 2024 and three,426 drones within the first quarter of 2025 alone.
This system’s Achilles heel, based on consultants, could lie in provide chain bottlenecks and the monetary dangers going through would-be drone makers.
Some would-be drone makers concern an analogous destiny as US firm Skydio, which was sanctioned by China in 2024 for promoting drones to Taiwan, based on Hong-Lun Tiunn, a DSET non-resident fellow and co-author of the June report.
Tiunn and his DSET colleague Fang mentioned the federal government wants to supply extra monetary incentives to producers to offset their issues.
“As a non-public firm, their first precedence is to make a revenue,” Fang instructed AL Jazeera. “Are they going to be punished by the Chinese language authorities and lose all their purchasers?”
Chia-yu Chang, enterprise improvement supervisor at Taiwanese drone designer Avilon Group, voiced related issues.
“It’s not simply supporting drone corporations; they should assist all the ecosystem in an effort to have a Taiwanese drone model. However I feel there are nonetheless a number of levels that want to come back proper,” Chang instructed Al Jazeera.
Chang mentioned personal corporations are additionally struggling to fully take away China from their provide chains.
“A lot of the business corporations, many of the trade, cares solely about knowledge or safety points, however for the army, they’d wish to have all the drone have zero Chinese language components,” she mentioned.
“Actually, no one can try this.”
Taiwan depends on China for most of the uncooked supplies and the components wanted to provide UAV batteries.
The island is equally depending on imports to satisfy its demand for GPS modules, flight management and positioning software program, sensors, cameras, and safe communication chips, based on the DSET report.
Some know-how, resembling thermal imaging, can be topic to US export controls regardless of Taipei’s shut ties to Washington.
Typically, these imports are dearer than Chinese language-made components, even when they’re from pleasant nations, based on the DSET, with a single part like an SDR video transmission chip costing as a lot as 10 instances the value supplied by DJI.
In response to questions on its provide chain, the NCSIST mentioned Taiwan is working in direction of self-sufficiency.
“For military-grade UAVs, key parts like high-power engines, precision navigation techniques, and superior sensors nonetheless rely on overseas markets because of Taiwan’s comparatively late begin in defence trade improvement,” the NCSIST instructed Al Jazeera.
“Nevertheless, NCSIST is addressing this by growing crucial indigenous applied sciences (eg, flight management computer systems, EO tools, radar), steadily lowering reliance on overseas suppliers,” it mentioned.
In the meantime, because the clock ticks all the way down to 2027, observers say Taiwan wants to maneuver quick.
“That is our warfare. This isn’t anyone else’s warfare,” the KMT’s Huang mentioned, including that there’s a “query mark” over whether or not Taiwan can implement an efficient drone technique.
“This isn’t simply [a case of] placing cash on the desk and saying we’re high-quality,” he mentioned.