United States President Donald Trump threatened to impose “very extreme tariffs” on Russia on Monday if a peace settlement to finish the Ukraine battle will not be reached within the subsequent 50 days.
Trump has additionally unveiled a brand new settlement to provide Ukraine with extra weapons.
On the marketing campaign path forward of final yr’s presidential election, Trump boasted that he would finish the battle in Ukraine inside his first 24 hours in workplace.
Nevertheless, after at the least six cellphone conversations between Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in addition to a number of conferences between US officers and officers from Russia and Ukraine, no ceasefire deal has been reached.
In Could, Putin refused to journey to Istanbul to fulfill with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for peace talks. The 2 international locations despatched delegations as an alternative, leading to prisoner change agreements, solely.
So, will Trump’s newest menace persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to vary his stance on Ukraine?
What did Trump say about Russia and Ukraine this week?
Weapons for Ukraine
At a gathering with NATO Secretary-Basic Mark Rutte within the Oval Workplace on Monday, Trump stated he was “disenchanted” in Putin and that Ukraine would obtain billions of {dollars}’ price of US weapons.
“We’re going to make top-of-the-line weapons, they usually’ll be despatched to NATO,” Trump stated, including that NATO would pay for them. He added that this would come with the Patriot air defence missiles that Ukraine has sought urgently.
“We now have one nation that has 17 Patriots on the brink of be shipped … We’re going to work a deal the place the 17 will go, or a giant portion of the 17 will go to the battle website,” Trump stated.
New tariffs for Russian items
Trump stated if Putin fails to signal a peace cope with Ukraine inside 50 days of Monday this week, he’ll impose “very extreme” commerce tariffs on Russia, in addition to secondary tariffs on different international locations.
“We’re going to be doing secondary tariffs,” Trump stated. “If we don’t have a deal in 50 days, it’s quite simple, they usually’ll be at 100%.”
For the reason that begin of the Ukraine battle, the US and its allies have imposed at the least 21,692 separate sanctions on Russian people, media organisations and establishments, focusing on sectors together with the army, power, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications.
Whereas the commerce relationship between US and Russia could be comparatively marginal, “secondary tariffs” – first threatened by Trump in March however not carried out – would have an effect on international locations comparable to India and China buying Russian oil.
In 2024, Russian oil made up 35 p.c of India’s complete crude imports and 19 p.c of China’s oil imports. Turkiye additionally depends closely on Russian oil, sourcing as much as 58 p.c of its refined petroleum imports from Russia in 2023.
Some Western international locations may be hit by secondary tariffs. In 2024, European international locations spent greater than $700m on Russian uranium merchandise, in line with an evaluation by the Brussels-based suppose tank Bruegel, which used knowledge from the European Union’s statistical workplace, Eurostat.
How has Russia responded to Trump’s newest threats?
Putin has not responded personally.
Nevertheless, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov instructed reporters on Tuesday: “The US president’s statements are very severe. A few of them are addressed personally to President Putin. We definitely want time to analyse what was stated in Washington.”
Peskov acknowledged, nonetheless, that choices made in Washington and different NATO international locations have been “perceived by the Ukrainian aspect not as a sign for peace, however as a sign to proceed the battle”.
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and present deputy chair of Russia’s Safety Council, wrote in an X submit on Tuesday that Russia didn’t care about Trump’s “theatrical ultimatum”.
Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin.
The world shuddered, anticipating the implications.
Belligerent Europe was disenchanted.
Russia didn’t care.— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) July 15, 2025
Sergei Ryabkov, a senior Russian diplomat, stated on Tuesday: “We at the start observe that any makes an attempt to make calls for – particularly ultimatums – are unacceptable for us,” Russia’s TASS information company reported.
The Russian inventory market appeared untroubled by Trump’s menace, rising 2.7 p.c on Monday, in line with the Moscow Inventory Trade.
The Russian rouble initially misplaced worth towards the US greenback however then recovered after Trump threatened new tariffs on Russia. In accordance with knowledge from monetary evaluation group LSEG, the rouble was simply 0.2 p.c weaker on the finish of the day, buying and selling at 78.10 to the US greenback after weakening to 78.75 earlier within the day.
The rouble gained 0.9 p.c to 10.87 towards the Chinese language yuan, probably the most traded international forex in Russia. This was after it had weakened by greater than 1 p.c on Friday.
Will US weapons assist Ukraine considerably?
Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher on the defence research division at King’s Faculty London, instructed Al Jazeera that the Patriot missile techniques that Trump has pledged to promote to Ukraine are long-range air defences greatest suited to taking pictures down ballistic missiles comparable to Russia’s Iskander M.
“However Ukraine will want short- to medium-range techniques in addition to a number of rocket launchers so as to defend itself. So it’s extra of a political transfer for Trump somewhat than the rest,” Miron stated.
She added that the importance of those weapons is dependent upon a number of elements, together with whether or not Ukraine will get 17 techniques as allegedly promised, and the place the techniques can be positioned.
How has Trump modified his stance on aiding Ukraine?
A month into his presidential time period, Trump posted on his Fact Social platform, blaming Zelenskyy for persevering with the battle with Russia and saying the Ukrainian president “talked the USA of America into spending $350 Billion {Dollars}, to enter a Struggle that couldn’t be received, that by no means needed to begin”.
The US has despatched Ukraine about $134bn in assist to this point – not $350bn – in line with the Kiel Institute for the World Financial system.
Trump’s MAGA (Make America Nice Once more) base has additionally been essential of US funding for Ukraine.
In early July, the Trump administration introduced a choice to “pause” arms deliveries to Kyiv, however reversed this every week later. When Trump introduced the reversal on July 8, his supporters voiced criticism.
Derrick Evans, one in all Trump’s supporters who was among the many throng which stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and who was later arrested however then pardoned by Trump in January this yr, wrote on X: “I didn’t vote for this.” Conservative social media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge posted on X: “Who within the hell is telling Trump that we have to ship extra weapons to Ukraine?”
Trump seems to be trying to deal with these criticisms by saying that as an alternative of supplying weapons to Ukraine, he’ll promote them to NATO.
Moreover, Miron stated, the US will not be dropping something by promoting weapons, since NATO will probably be paying for them. “There will not be sufficient techniques being supplied to make a considerable distinction,” she stated.
May Trump’s newest threats pressure Putin to vary his coverage?
Whereas Putin has repeatedly voiced his willpower to attain his battle goals, he has not particularly acknowledged what they’re. Broadly, he has sought territorial positive factors inside Ukraine and has opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO – these haven’t modified and are unlikely to take action, in line with observers.
“When you have been to explain Russia’s method, it’s ‘maintain calm and keep on,’” Miron stated, referring to the truth that most Russian officers haven’t responded to Trump’s menace.
“So they aren’t going for this informational entice,” she stated.
Has Putin modified his stance in any respect since Russia invaded Ukraine?
Miron stated Putin has expanded his targets since Ukraine’s main cross-border incursion to the Kursk area in August final yr. Ukraine’s push into Kursk, which took the Kremlin unexpectedly, marked probably the most vital Ukrainian assault inside Russian territory for the reason that battle started.
In Could this yr, Russian troops have been tasked with establishing a buffer zone stretching as much as 10km (6 miles) into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in line with Ukraine’s army intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with Bloomberg revealed on July 11.
“I’ve already stated {that a} resolution was made to create the required safety buffer zone alongside the border. Our armed forces are at present fixing this downside. Enemy firing factors are being actively suppressed, the work is underneath approach,” Putin stated again then.
Whereas Putin didn’t present a lot element about what the buffer zones would entail, Russian Basic Viktor Sobolev stated they might permit Russia to push Ukraine’s long-range missiles out of hanging vary, Ukrainian media reported.