High United States diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff visited Moscow on Wednesday in a last-ditch push to influence Russian President Vladimir Putin to conform to a ceasefire with Ukraine earlier than an August 8 deadline set by President Donald Trump.
After Witkoff’s assembly with Putin, the White Home stated that Russia had sought a gathering with Trump. The US president, the White Home stated, was open to assembly each Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump, who throughout his re-election marketing campaign had promised he would be capable to finish the Russia-Ukraine struggle in 24 hours if he got here to energy, has to this point didn’t mediate a truce regardless of months of hectic diplomacy, direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv, and telephone calls with Putin.
More and more pissed off by Putin’s unwillingness to conform to a pause in preventing with out imposing circumstances unacceptable to Ukraine or the West, Trump has threatened a brand new wave of financial measures punishing Russia if it doesn’t settle for a ceasefire.
Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies, together with the UK and the European Union, have imposed greater than 21,000 sanctions on Russia’s economic system.
The brand new tariffs Trump has threatened are in contrast to any of these earlier sanctions, nevertheless. They aim Russia by hitting out towards its buying and selling companions, within the hope that they may cease shopping for from or promoting to Moscow.
However these secondary tariffs additionally carry dangers for the US and its allies.
What are the secondary tariffs Trump is threatening?
In mid-July, as peace talks stalled regardless of Trump’s efforts, the US president threatened Russia with 100% secondary tariffs if it didn’t work in direction of a ceasefire. He gave the Kremlin a 50-day deadline to cooperate.
After Moscow advised that it wouldn’t bow to US stress, Trump moved up the deadline, which now expires on August 8. It’s unclear if Trump’s openness to talks with Putin and Zelenskyy following Witkoff’s Moscow go to has modified that deadline.
On Wednesday, Trump doubled the tariff fee on Indian imports from 25 p.c – which he had introduced in late July – to 50 p.c, as punishment for New Delhi’s refusal to cease shopping for Russian oil. That makes India the nation dealing with the best US tariffs at current – together with Brazil.
If Trump’s secondary tariffs go into impact, items that the US imports from nations nonetheless buying and selling with Russia would face duties of 100% on prime of the tariffs Trump has already imposed on these nations.
That may no less than double the worth of these merchandise, making them much less aggressive within the US market.
The thought behind these tariffs is to influence Russia’s buying and selling companions to cease shopping for and promoting with the nation, isolating its economic system and depriving it of income it earns from exports, particularly from vitality.
Regardless of the sanctions it already faces, Russia has constantly earned greater than 500 million euros ($580m) a day from vitality exports since 2022. That will probably be disrupted if nations cease shopping for all oil and gasoline from Russia.
Which nations might Trump’s secondary tariffs hit?
The nations most affected by such secondary tariffs could be:
- China: Russia’s most vital ally, China is by far the most important client of its northern neighbour’s exports. In 2023, China purchased virtually a 3rd of all Russian exports. It additionally purchased virtually half of Russia’s oil exports.
- India: An previous buddy, India has been shopping for up massive volumes of Russian crude since 2022, together with virtually 40 p.c of Russia’s complete oil exports in 2023. That yr, 17 p.c of Russia’s total exports went to India. Trump had already imposed a 25 p.c tariff on Indian items. On Wednesday, he doubled that fee as punishment for India’s continued oil purchases from Russia.
- Turkiye: The third-largest purchaser of Russian vitality, 8 p.c of Russia’s exports in 2023 went to Turkiye. It’s a NATO ally of the US.
Turkiye isn’t the one ally that may very well be hit if Trump actually targets all those that commerce with Russia.
May US allies be hit?
Pushing again towards Western threats over its ties with Russia, India has pointed to the EU’s personal commerce with Moscow. And whereas that commerce has plummeted since 2022, it’s nonetheless substantial.
Based on the EU, its complete commerce with Russia was value 67.5 billion euros ($77.9bn) in 2024. India’s complete commerce with Russia in 2024-25, in contrast, was value $68.7bn.
The bloc nonetheless depends closely on Russia for its liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) provides. The truth is, its import of Russian LNG has been rising: In 2024, EU imports of Russian LNG had been 9 p.c greater than the yr earlier than.
Europe has already been hit with a 15 p.c tariff from Trump. Will Trump punish his closest supporters to stress Russia to finish the struggle?
May the US face dangers, too?
It’s not simply allies – secondary tariffs on those that commerce with Russia carry dangers for the US itself, too.
Trump’s crew is at the moment engaged on a commerce cope with China, and people talks have led to a pause in a tariff struggle between the world’s two largest economies.
That detente would break down if Trump imposes 100% tariffs on Chinese language items just because Beijing additionally trades with Russia.
China, Europe and India are all main suppliers of products to the US: If the price of these merchandise – from garments to lamps to iPhones – doubles, American shoppers will really feel the pinch.
The US additionally buys chemical substances, together with uranium hexafluoride – utilized in uranium enrichment – from Russia.
Will India and China cease shopping for Russian vitality?
That appears unlikely. China continues to purchase oil from Iran, regardless of US sanctions – and Russia is arguably its closest strategic associate.
India has additionally proven no signal of loosening its ties with Russia. Witkoff isn’t the one international envoy visiting Moscow in the meanwhile. India’s nationwide safety adviser, Ajit Doval, can be within the Russian capital. India’s international minister, S Jaishankar, is anticipated to go to Russia later this month, and India has introduced that it intends to host Putin later this yr.
On Wednesday, India described Trump’s 50 p.c tariff as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, including that its buy of Russian oil was rooted in its want for vitality safety for its 1.4 billion individuals.